Analysis of NFL Analysts: Which 'Experts' Get It Right?

One thing that distinguishes all NFL fans: they think they know more about the league than every other NFL fan in the country -- or at least that's what they think. Basically, every fan is an expert in his or her own mind.

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That's why each week of the season, fans of the sport wager tens of millions of dollars on games. Even those fans who do not bet often sign up for a free pick pool on one of the various fantasy sports websites, just to see how well they can predict the games. These same sites often employ NFL "experts" who publish their picks in weekly articles.

Ever wonder how you get certified to be an NFL expert? It must not be too tough, because at this point in the season less than half of the expert analysts on the most popular fantasy sports sites are picking games correctly at a rate higher than 50%.

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Granted, picking NFL games against a point spread is a very difficult task. The odds makers in Vegas are extremely accurate when they handicap each game. Not to mention the NFL season so far -- roughly 130 games -- is not a representative sample size. To this point in the season, however, many so-called experts do not seem to have a very good grasp on how the various teams stack up.

If you're using these experts' picks as guidance when making your own picks, Mashable has some advice for you. To decide which are the most credible, we've been following the analysts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Fox, NBC and CBS, in addition to users from Yahoo, the site generally regarded as the most-used fantasy sports site. These sites were selected both because of their popularity, and because their analysts post predictions against the point spread, or in a format from which such a prediction could be discerned.

Pulling predictions from articles posted on the various sites, we compiled the following sortable chart showing which analysts get it right most often.

Considering the chart, it is important to keep in mind that anything above 50% is solid. Using that measuring stick, there are clearly a few analysts you can look to for solid advice. Joel Beall of Fox Sports has a healthy lead on the rest of the pack, picking games correctly nearly 60% of the time.

Aside from paying attention to the analysts, it appears that some teams are easier to figure out than others. The following chart shows the percent of the time the analysts in the previous chart guessed correctly on specific teams (whether predicting a win or a loss).

Having a rookie quarterback seem to be one factor that makes a team difficult to predict. Four out of the eight least-predictable teams have first-year signal callers. The Chiefs have been the easiest team to predict, perhaps because they nearly always lose.

Hopefully this advice helps you decide when to employ the "expert" advice and when to go with your gut. This knowledge will help you outsmart all the other lay experts. No pressure, but now you're all expected to be the nerds who use math to help win your office's weekly pick pool.

Some Notes on the Data

Stats include games through week nine.
Bill Simmons is not technically on the ESPN fantasy sports pannel, but he writes for ESPN and he picks games against the spread. The formal ESPN pannel of experts only posts "straight up" predictions.
The various outlets have different figures for "Total Games" for several reasons. The sites posted their picks in varying formats and with varying point spreads. Most sites just posted predictions with whichever spread the analysts were using. NBC and SI posted predictions of what the actual scores were going to be for each game, to which the point spread posted on Yahoo was applied to figure out whether or not the prediction was correct.
The statistic for the Yahoo Users could be misleading because it represents the majority opinion for each game. Instances where 51% of the group picked right was counted as a win, just the same as instances where 85% were correct (and vice versa with incorrect picks). Taken individually, the Yahoo users percentage drops slightly to 50.6%.
Another note on the Yahoo Users: The group performed poorly most weeks, but its statistics are buoyed by week 9 when as a group they picked 13 out of 14 games correctly. As individuals, the Yahoo users were right a ridiculous 65% of the time picking the week 9 games.
The second chart on which teams are the most predictable does not include any data from Bill Simmons or the Fox Sports pannel from weeks one through three.

Be sure to leave us your best advice on divining the results of NFL games in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of Daiyu, via Wikimedia Commons

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